ESSAY: Should I simply use consensus picks?
The answer may surprise you.
I went to the Hilton World Championships of Handicapping NFL 2002 final results. I examined the top 5 consensus picks for each week for the entire season. The logic behind this test is that you have the best football handicappers on the planet in this contest, working their hardest offering their best NFL picks. If you gather a consensus of these picks you should, theoretically, get the best possible picks mathematically.
I did this analysis and found something absolutely fascinating. The top 5 picks consensus of the participants in the Hilton World Championships of Handicapping for the NFL season 2002 ended up exactly 50% ATS. It is important that you understand this number. A monkey wearing a clown outfit banging a drum while throwing bananas at a list of teams each week will get 50% ATS in the NFL for 2002.
Conclusion: Do not use consensus picks.. they will cost you a lot of money in the long run.