ESSAY: Are some sports better
than others for wagering?
You may be losing money because you are wagering on the wrong sports. There is strong argument that some sports are better than others for wagering. The problem is that it hasn't been proven to the extent that it should be. The following table analyzes each sport in terms of its potential for wagering. The following helps make sense of the table:
variance:
how much variability in performance experienced by a team between performances
blind bet: can you find a simple trend that
you bet all season long and win without any effort
| SPORT | Variance in Performance | Trends | Role of Home Court | Better team usually wins | Ease to handicap | Can it be modelled mathematically | Blind bet opportunities |
Conclusion |
| NBA | Surprisingly high | somewhat useful | Strong | mostly yes | surprisingly easy; good data available | surprisingly easy | yes | Good opportunities for math modelling make it a good sport |
| NBA Playoffs | Lower than regular season | useless | Slightly lower than in regular season | yes | very difficult | very difficult | yes | Very difficult; best to minimize bets |
| NCAA BB | Extremely high | useless | Moderately high | yes | very difficult; 'inside' info too important | yes, but is not very accurate | rare | Very difficult given high variance of performance |
| NCAA FB | Moderately low | barely useful | Medium | mostly yes | very easy | yes, only with correct data; not very good with 'trend' data. Later season easier. | yes | Surprisingly good sport to consider spending time on |
| NFL Pre | high | useless | low | mostly no | extremely difficult | no; only useful data is coaches past behavior | yes | Generally bad sport |
| NFL Playoffs | low | useless | medium/ high | generally no ! | very difficult | generally no | rare | Not the best to bet on! |
| NFL Regular season | medium | moderately useful but dropping | medium | leaning toward yes | generally difficult | yes, but the data is too public and the lines are almost mathematically perfect | generally no | More popular than it should be |
| NHL regular season | very high | useful | low | mostly yes | very difficult | very difficult | generally no | Very difficult sports to handicap |
| NHL playoffs | moderately high | low use | low/ medium | generally yes | medium difficulty | generally no | hard to find | Slightly better than regular season but still difficult |
| MLB regular season | moderately low | very useful | low / medium | generally yes | middle difficulty | yes | yes | Good sports to consider mastering |
| MLB playoffs | medium | generally useless | medium | generally yes | very difficult | generally no | yes | Cash in your regular season profits and just enjoy... avoid |